"Volcanologist opines that this is a silent phase of gradually diminishing activity"
Chilling Silence at Sundhnúkagígar
Volcanologist Þorvaldur Þórðarson hints the explosive episodes at the Sundhnúkagígar crater row may be subsiding. The eighth eruption since the series commenced in December 2023 exploded on April 1, yet it ceased only six hours later.
Iceland Monitor Insight
Inflation remains steady, mirroring pre-eruption rates, with the seismic activity persisting. Approximately 80 to 150 daily earthquakes continue to rumble beneath Sundhnúkagígar[4], and magma amasses at an accelerated speed in the Svartsengi volcanic system[3]. This pattern indicates that the volcano might be gearing up for another display.
Inflation Keeps Chugging: 80-150 Quakes per Day Near Sundhnúkagígar
Þórðarson believes this continued inflation to be a release of tension[1]. He tells mbl.is, "The inflow from the deeper storage chamber to the shallower one has been steadily decreasing, although it hasn't been as fast as before. We've reached a point where it could shut down completely, and the system won't be able to maintain itself."
He admits that it's not possible to rule out another eruption identical to the April 1 event.
Iceland Monitor Insight
Þórðarson suggests that this calm phase could be the volcano's prelude to fading out[2]. He predicts a slowdown in landmass activity and a reduction in the overall rumble. He also proposes a possible end to this activity by mid-summer, hinting at a timeline of July or early August for the next eruption, though acknowledges it's more likely the activity will subside.
He emphasizes that a second eruption isn't imminent and won't happen right away.
Speedy Magma Flow under Svartsengi Now
"It could be the last one, but I think this is in the quiet phase of fading out. I wouldn't be surprised if the landmass slowed down even further, and this calmed down," he says.
Iceland Monitor Insight
The Icelandic Met Office (IMO) suggests continued eruption risks, with a possibility of another eruption or dike intrusion within weeks or months[2][3]. The 29 May event demonstrated rapid escalation from seismic activity to an eruption within hours[3], making precise timing of future events challenging. However, the IMO's continuous monitoring highlights sustained magma inflow, indicating a possibility of mid-summer eruptions if the current trends continue[3][5].
Keep an eye on:– Inflation rates comparable to pre-April 2025 eruption levels[4]– Seismic swarms intensifying near Sundhnúkagígar or Grindavík[3]– Gas emissions as elevated SO₂ levels often precede eruptions[3]
These observations align with geologists' theories that the Reykjanes Peninsula may have entered a new volcanic era potentially lasting for several decades[5]. No current data can rule out mid-summer 2025 eruptions definitively.
- Volcanologist Þorvaldur Þórðarson speculates that the series of eruptions at Sundhnúkagígar might be diminishing, with the latest eruption on April 1, 2024, ceasing after only six hours.
- The continued inflation, mirroring pre-eruption rates, is seen as a release of tension by Þorðarson, who foresees a possible shutdown of the volcanic system.
- Despite Þorðarson's predictions of a potential clamming down of activity by mid-summer, the Icelandic Met Office (IMO) cautions of continued eruption risks, with possible eruptions or dike intrusions within weeks or months.
- The IMO's continuous monitoring indicates a possibility of mid-summer eruptions persisting if the current trends continue, yet the exact timing of future events remains challenging due to rapid escalations observed in the May 29 event.
- Health experts are encouraging people with medical-conditions or concerns about health-and-wellness to monitor news reports for updates on air quality and safety measures during potential eruptions.
- Scientists suggest that the Reykjanes Peninsula may have entered a new volcanic era that could last for several decades, and no current data can rule out mid-summer 2025 eruptions definitively.
