Vietnam abolishes two-child family policy, continuing under four-decade-long practice.
Unleashing the Winds of Change: Vietnam Drops Two-Child Policy Amidst Plummeting Fertility Rate
In a striking move, the communist nation of Vietnam has bid adieu to its two-child policy dating back to 1988, wrestling with a persistent downturn in its fertility rate. The governmental news outlet, Vietnam News Agency, broke the news on the 4th of June, 2023. This newfound freedom allows couples to decide on their desired family size without constraints.
With a population nearing the 100 million mark, the country braces itself for the potential fallout of a declining fertility rate, a phenomenon generally seen in affluent nations. The authorities are ranked on figuring out how to catapult the country to high-income status by 2045.
For the past three years, the fertility rate has dwindled below the replenishment level of 2.1 and plunged to historically low levels. The Ministry of Health reported figures of 2.11 children per woman in 2021, plummeting to 1.91 in 2024. This dramatic decline predominantly impacts urban hubs like Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, where salaries struggle to keep pace with skyrocketing living expenses.
Vietnam's Deputy Minister of Health, Nguyen Thi Lien Huong, cautioned this year about the escalating challenge to persuade couples to expand their families, despite various incentives from the state. Such a decrease in the mean number of children per woman raises long-term issues concerning economic development, including population aging and a shrinking workforce.
Society and Beyond
Huong urged society to evolve its mindset, delving beyond family planning, and adopting a more comprehensive outlook on population and development.
Vietnam grapples with an imbalance in gender ratios, stemming from a traditional penchant for boys. The Ministry of Health proposed the tripling of the existing fine, putting it at $3,800, in a bid to deter sex-selective abortions, as per state media. The sex ratio at birth, while showing some improvement, remains skewed at 112 boys for every 100 girls.
Vietnam's neighbor, China, introduced its one-child policy in the late 1970s in an effort to curb population expansion. Since 2016, tenderness shown to families by allowing all families to have three children if they so desire, yields inconclusive benefits. China's demographic decline has persisted, witnessing a decrease in population for the third consecutive year in 2024.
Much like many other countries facing similar predicaments, escalating living costs have been a brakesman on birth rates, and loosened restraints have not stopped China's demographic descent.
Trends and Tidal Changes
Declining Fertility Rate
Vietnam's fertility rate has been retreating steadily. The rate dipped from 2.11 children per woman in 2021, down to 2.01 in 2022, further to 1.96 in 2023, and finally reaching 1.91 in 2024 [1][2]. This trend is particularly evident in urban regions like Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, where economic pressures restrain young families from procreation [3].
Below Replacement Level
The fertility rate has remained beneath the replenishment level of 2.1 children per woman since 2022, demonstrating a long-term decline that could impact Vietnam's future workforce and economic growth [2][3].
Policies and Proposed Laws
Policy Shifts
Vietnam has halted its two-child policy to stimulate childbirth and counter the fertility crisis [2][3].
Drafting the First Population Law
The Ministry of Health is fashioning the first Population Law in Vietnam to tackle demographic challenges, targeting sustainable workforce expansion and cultivating high-quality human resources by 2045 [5].
The Road Ahead
Economic and Social Milestones
Alleviating economic pressures and social burdens will be instrumental to any policy orientation aiming to stimulate childbirth, particularly in urban landscapes [3].
Public Consciousness and Support
Although public awareness and encouragement campaigns have been initiated, these efforts face considerable barriers in a society where choosing to have fewer children is gaining prevalence due to economic and social shifts [3].
Science plays a crucial role in analyzing and addressing the declining fertility rate in Vietnam, particularly in understanding the impact of economic pressures on family planning decisions. In the realm of health-and-wellness, policies aimed at alleviating economic burdens and promoting comprehensive population and development policies could potentially reverse the trend.
