Reduction in USAID funding by President Trump may lead to a shocking 14 million preventable deaths by the year 2030.
In a chilling warning, a recent report published in The Lancet suggests that drastic cuts to US foreign humanitarian aid could have catastrophic global health and development consequences by 2030. The US Agency for International Development (USAID), the world's largest funding agency for humanitarian and development aid, is set to see over 80 percent of its programmes terminated, a move that has been strongly condemned by humanitarian organisations.
The report projects that such deep cuts could result in more than 14 million additional deaths globally by 2030, including over 4.5 million children under the age of 5. These deaths are attributed to the loss of funding for health services, nutrition, water and sanitation, education, and emergency humanitarian relief.
The abrupt withdrawal of American support threatens to halt and potentially reverse two decades of progress in global health and development. The report states that the shock to vulnerable populations would be similar in scale to that of a global pandemic or a major armed conflict, but this crisis would result from a policy decision rather than natural or military disaster.
USAID has played a pivotal role in strengthening local health systems, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, by supporting responses to diseases like HIV, malaria, and tuberculosis, as well as providing disaster relief and supporting agricultural development. Cutting funding now puts lives at risk and weakens infrastructure that has taken decades to build.
The burden of these cuts will fall most heavily on children and younger populations, with long-term consequences that could reverberate for decades. The loss of humanitarian and development assistance could also increase instability in already fragile states, as reduced access to health, food, and education could exacerbate poverty and conflict.
A summary of the estimated consequences by impact area includes:
- Preventable deaths: Over 14 million (including over 4.5 million children) - Progress reversal: Two decades of gains at risk - Health system capacity: Local systems weakened - Humanitarian relief: Major reduction in disaster response - Children and youth: Disproportionately affected
In conclusion, the Lancet report warns that the proposed US aid cuts risk setting back global health and development achievements by decades, with millions of lives—especially those of children—hanging in the balance. The short-term, medium-term, and long-term consequences for public health, economic development, and societal stability could be profound.
This outcome threatens to reverse three decades of humanitarian progress and could significantly undermine global efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals for 2030. Other Western donors have announced reductions in their aid budgets, introducing a significant funding crisis in the humanitarian and development aid sector. Without time to implement adaptive responses, the most severe effects cannot be mitigated.
Sources: [1] The Lancet [2] USAID [3] World Health Organization [4] United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) [5] World Food Programme (WFP)
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