Globally Administering Vaccines: Challenges Posed by a One-Drop-at-a-Time Approach
In a thought-provoking article published as a legacy post, psychologist Govind Persad raises concerns about the drop-in-the-bucket effect and its impact on the global distribution of vaccines.
Persad argues that using 100 million vaccines for boosters in the United States would have far less benefit compared to saving lives and preventing hospitalizations. This is due to the high efficacy of the two-dose series against death and hospitalization.
The "barely make a dent" argument, used to defend using hundreds of millions of doses as domestic boosters, reflects an indefensible cognitive bias, according to Persad. This bias, also known as pseudoinefficacy, makes one feel like extra vaccines don't matter, even when many more people won't be able to access vaccines.
The U.S. vaccine campaign is estimated to have prevented 279,000 deaths and 1.25 million hospitalizations between December 2020 and June 2021, while administering around 300 million vaccines. As of the report, the United States has a stockpile of approximately 150 million vaccine doses in freezers.
However, 100 million extra vaccines are expected to save just under 100,000 lives and prevent around 400,000 hospitalizations. Even if other countries waste half of what they receive, these doses would still save tens of thousands of lives and prevent hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations.
Persad emphasizes the importance of understanding and reducing the effects of cognitive biases like drop-in-the-bucket thinking to save lives and accelerate vaccination worldwide. The World Health Organization and many ethicists have criticized the broad provision of boosters for exacerbating global vaccine scarcity.
The orders for additional vaccines may be motivated by the expectation of broad access to booster vaccines in the United States. However, Persad encourages more careful deliberation, minimizing the emphasis on the number of people in need, or highlighting the benefits to those who are helped. This could be effective in reducing the effects of drop-in-the-bucket biases.
As of now, there are no specific researchers or organizations identified in the search results that have conducted studies or research projects on the impacts of the drop-in-the-bucket effect on the global distribution of vaccines or on identifying ways to reduce this cognitive bias. More research on blunting the power of drop-in-the-bucket biases could be crucial to saving lives and accelerating vaccination worldwide.
The article covers topics related to Global Ethics, Health Disparities, Politics, Public Health, Social Justice, Vaccines, and Vulnerable Populations. The psychologist Paul Slovic refers to this phenomenon as "proportion dominance," "psychic numbing," or the "drop-in-the-bucket effect."
Since March 2021, the United States has wasted over 15 million doses of vaccines. The article serves as a call to action to prioritize vaccine distribution effectively, ensuring that every dose counts in the global fight against COVID-19.
