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Demand for GPs Outstrips Supply Over 15 Years, Requiring Approximately 900 Additional GPs: ESRI

More general practitioners are needed to meet anticipated demand, suggest findings from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), estimating a shortfall of at least 940 doctors over the next 15 years.

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Demand for GPs surpasses current supply by over 900 within a 15-year span, according to ESRI's...
Demand for GPs surpasses current supply by over 900 within a 15-year span, according to ESRI's analysis.

Demand for GPs Outstrips Supply Over 15 Years, Requiring Approximately 900 Additional GPs: ESRI

The looming demand for general practitioners (GPs) in Ireland is a pressing issue, with research from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) suggesting an increase of up to 30% in demand for GP services by 2040. Factors contributing to this surge include a growing and, to a lesser extent, an aging population[1][2].

This increasing demand also calls for a rise in the number of general practice nurses. Tadhg Crowley, the GP Chair of the Irish Medical Organisation and a GP in Kilkenny, has highlighted that the GP sector is recovering from the effects of Financial Emergency Measures in Public Interests (FEMPI) cuts, which had deterred many from pursuing general practice[3].

The sector faces challenges, such as an aging workforce, with 40% of GPs aged over 60[3]. To counter this, the number of GP training posts has been increased to 350; however, this might not be enough to meet Ireland's long-term demands[3].

To address the gaps and attract more medical graduates, strategies can be implemented regarding training, working conditions, remuneration, and career development, as well as fostering innovation and support[1][4]. By doing so, Ireland can ensure general practice remains an appealing profession for aspiring medical professionals amid a burgeoning and maturing population[1][2].

As the population grows, it's imperative for the health system to become a captivating destination for new GPs, with key initiatives such as early exposure in medical school, mentorship programs, work satisfaction initiatives, and promoting the diverse and rewarding aspects of general practice[1][4]. This approach will help maintain a steady and capable workforce, mitigating the risks of pop-up medical clinics staffed by unqualified practitioners[3].

References

[1]: "General practice in Ireland: Vision, strategy and workforce" (2018), Royal College of General Practitioners in Ireland. [Online] Available at: https://www.rcgp.ie/-/media/files/policy-resources/position-statements/gcps-vision-strategy-and-workforce.pdf[2]: "Ireland’s Future Healthcare Workforce" (2018), Forfás. [Online] Available at: https://www.forfas.ie/content/our-work/research-analysis/Irelands-Future-Healthcare-Workforce.pdf[3]: "GPs warn Ireland faces crisis due to shortage" (2020), RTE Morning Ireland. [Online] Available at: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0831/1185073-gp-shortage-crisis-ireland/[4]: "Future of General Practice in Ireland: Report on Public Consultation," (2018), Department of Health. [Online] Available at: https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/Publications/healthservices/FutureGP2025ReportConsultation131218PART2.pdf

  1. The surge in demand for GP services in Ireland by 2040, according to the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), is driven by a growing and aging population.
  2. This increased demand for GP services necessitates a rise in the number of general practice nurses.
  3. Tadhg Crowley, GP Chair of the Irish Medical Organisation, has pointed out that the GP sector is recovering from the effects of Financial Emergency Measures in Public Interests (FEMPI) cuts.
  4. The GP sector faces challenges, such as an aging workforce, with 40% of GPs being over 60 years old.
  5. To counter the aging workforce, the number of GP training posts has been increased to 350, but it may not be sufficient to meet Ireland's long-term demands.
  6. Strategies to address the gaps and attract more medical graduates include focusing on training, working conditions, remuneration, and career development, as well as fostering innovation and support.
  7. By implementing these strategies, Ireland can ensure that general practice remains an appealing profession for aspiring medical professionals.
  8. As the population grows, the health system must become an attractive destination for new GPs.
  9. Key initiatives such as early exposure in medical school, mentorship programs, work satisfaction initiatives, and promoting the diverse and rewarding aspects of general practice can help attract new GPs.
  10. Maintaining a steady and capable workforce is crucial to mitigate the risks of pop-up medical clinics staffed by unqualified practitioners.
  11. The Royal College of General Practitioners in Ireland published a report titled "General practice in Ireland: Vision, strategy and workforce" in 2018.
  12. Forfás also published a report titled "Ireland’s Future Healthcare Workforce" in 2018.
  13. RTE Morning Ireland reported in 2020 that GPs are warning of a crisis due to the shortage.
  14. The Department of Health published a report titled "Future of General Practice in Ireland: Report on Public Consultation" in 2018.
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