Catastrophic fires will lead to approximately 1.4 million excess fatalities due from premature causes
In a concerning development, two studies published in the prestigious scientific journal Nature have shed light on the potential consequences of climate change on wildfires and their impact on public health and carbon emissions.
Researchers from Stony Brook and Stanford Universities have developed models to predict future concentrations of fine particles (PM2.5) generated by wildfires in North America under different climate scenarios. These models are designed to forecast the impact of wildfires on PM2.5 concentrations in the region.
The studies suggest that climate change scenarios could significantly increase the impact of wildfires on health and carbon emissions. One of these studies, focusing on the United States, estimates that an additional 71,420 annual deaths could occur by 2050 due to exposure to wildfire smoke and inhalation of fine particles, under a high emissions scenario. This estimate is based on data on deaths registered in the United States between 2006 and 2019.
Another study, also published in Nature, estimates more than 70,000 additional deaths per year from US wildfire smoke by 2050 in a high pollution emissions scenario. These additional deaths in the United States are a result of the increase in fine particles caused by the increase in wildfires due to climate changes.
Meanwhile, researchers from Tsinghua University in China have used an automatic learning model to estimate an increase of 1.4 million annual premature deaths from wildfire polluting emissions by the end of the century. This study suggests that an increase in wildfire polluting emissions will lead to approximately six times the current rates of premature deaths.
The studies predict a 23% increase in global carbon emissions from wildfires under an intermediate emissions scenario between 2010-2014 and 2095-2099. The authors of these studies, including Minghao Qiu from Stony Brook University and Marshall Burke from Stanford University, have emphasised the urgent need to address climate change and its impact on wildfires to mitigate their harmful effects on public health and the environment.
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